The median fell, prices did not: the «structure effect» on the car market
In July 2026 the median asking price on Azerbaijan's car market stood at 17,000 AZN — 900 manats, or 5%, below June. The figure comes from the Azerbaijan Chamber of Appraisers (ACA) and was published by navigator.az on 18 August 2026. The report's main message, though, is different: this drop is not a price decline.
Two different indices
The ACA index on a changing structure read 98.3 in July against 103.5 in June. Hold the market weights of makes and models constant, and the index is 103.1; compare like-for-like on the same model and production year and it is 103.3. In other words, the real price change sits in a 0.2-0.4% band. The reason: in July the share of cheaper, relatively older cars in the supply rose while the premium segment's share fell — and that pulled the raw median down.
What the hedonic model says
The July model is built on more than 25,000 observations and the 120 most active make-model pairs, with an explanatory power of 93.3%. The strongest factors:
- each additional year of age lowers the price by 6.1% on average;
- mileage matters less — each extra thousand kilometres costs 0.0256%, so 50,000 km is about 1.27%;
- a manual gearbox is valued about 6.3% below an automatic;
- a repaired accident history means a 5.2% loss of value, while unrepaired damage means roughly 21% (15.8% repair-cost equivalent plus 5.2% residual loss).
The same effect in our catalogue
Prayk's Cars section held 21,988 listings on 12 September 2026, with an overall median of 13,600 AZN. Split by production year, the picture changes:
- 1999 and older — median 5,500 AZN (3,471 listings);
- 2000-2009 — 10,300 AZN (6,491);
- 2010-2019 — 19,500 AZN (7,971);
- 2020 and newer — 34,000 AZN (3,005).
Neighbouring age groups differ by nearly a factor of two. So the moment the share of older cars in the supply rises by a few percent, the «overall median» falls even though no individual car has become cheaper. The practical takeaway is simple: compare your car not with the overall median but with the same model of the same year — which is exactly what the «What is it worth?» calculator does, while the market prices section shows the make-and-model cut.
Source: navigator.az, 18 August 2026 (ACA data). See also: the expected 3-5% price rise.